By Joel E. Cohen
Notes
- Before 2000, young people always outnumbered old people. From 2000 forward, old people will outnumber young people
- The human population has continued to increase in growth and does not seem like it may stop any time soon
- There was dramatic fall however in 1970 by 1.1 or 1.2 percent a year that resulted primarily from choices by billions of couples around the world to limit the number of children born
- Rapid population growth will boost human numbers by nearly 50 percent, from 6.5 billion now to 9.1 billion in 2050
- Falling fertility and increasing longevity worldwide will expand the proportion of potentially dependent elderly people
- Increase access to reproductive health care and contraception to voluntarily slow population growth
- By 2050 the world's population is projected to reach 9.1 billion, plus or minus two billion people, depending on future birth and death rates
- Virtually all population growth in the next 45 years is expected to happen in today's economically less developed regions
- At present, the average woman bears nearly twice as many children (2.9) in the poor countries as in the rich countries (1.6 children per woman)
- In contrast, 51 countries or areas, most of them economically more developed, will lose population between now and 2050
- The average life span grew from perhaps 30 years at the beginning of the 20th century to more than 65 years at the beginning of the 21st century
- Projections of billions more people in developing countries and more elderly people everywhere, coupled with hopes of economic growth especially for the world's poo, raise concerns in some quarters about the sustainability of present and future populations
- Uneven growth will further shift the population balance between rich and poor nations
- Early efforts to calculate Earth's human carrying capacity assumed that necessary condition for a sustainable human society could be measured in units of land
- The problem of sustainability remains, but biologically productive land area is not a useful indicator of it
- If the world's urban population roughly doubles in the next half a century, from three billion to six billion, while the the world's rural population remains roughly constant at three billion with other variables, this can prove to be a growing challenge from urban waste
- Unless urban food gardening surges, on average each rural person will have to shift from feeding herself (most of the world's agricultural workers are women) and one city dweller today to feeding herself and two urbanites in less than half a century
- Many things will go into higher demand once the population increases by double or even more
- Urbanization will interact with the transformation of human societies by aging
- Cities raise the economic premium paid to younger, better-educated workers whereas the mobility they promote often weakens traditional kin networks that provide familial support to elderly people
- Trends in the health of the elderly are positive overall, despite severe problems in some economies in transition and regions afflicted by AIDS
- An older person relies first on his or her spouse in case of difficulty (if there is a spouse), marital status is also a key influence on living conditions among the elderly
- No one knows the path to sustainability because no one knows the destination, if there is one
Summary
The human population over multiple decades has continued to increase over the course of time. The population will always double until there has a carrying capacity that has been reached when the amount of people has been considered too much. Surprisingly the numbers of people 45 years or older have been doubling which is a very different change for planet Earth. The human population has never gone through a speed at this rate as it seems like it will not stop anytime soon for more 50 years until the capacity may be reached. Estimates have already shown that it can be almost 9.1 billion people living on planet Earth by 2050 which is both crazy and concerning at the same time for the future. With more people, means much more demands that needs to be made agriculturally and economically to have a sustainable world as there will be much change to come with years to come. All the uneven growth will further shift the population balance between rich and poor nations. The early efforts in calculating Earth's human capacity assumes that the human society is sustainable through measures of land instead later on. Much higher demand will be made if continues to increase and urbanization will interact with the the transformation of human societies by aging. The elderly will be covered more as many cities will begin to raise the economic premium with trends in health to change becoming more efficient and better benefits will soon arise.
Opinion
In my opinion this is very scary as this leaves us to only imagine how the world may look like in the future and if it truly will be sustainable for planet Earth to handle. We are only able to base it off of what we know now and the estimates that we are able to make and according to those, they seem to not be slowing down anytime soon. The one thing I am worrying about the most is if we can truly handle what may lie ahead of us as more people means more responsibilities to be done. Things that may have to change and upgrade more are in agricultural as production will have to step it up with more people living on the planet. Probably the one that'll be the most essential is medicine as it will have to provide for millions of people around the world that suffer from a wide variety of different diseases. The change in growth will also make a balance of the rich and poor nations for years to come. More higher demand will come along with everything that'll start to happen and must be aware of our decisions for our world. The world will continue to change and try and see how we can make this planet more sustainable for us to live on with no downfall.